Wednesday, January 30, 2008

The Black Sox Faction

The White Sox pursued three major outfielders this off season, and seemingly got their third choice in Nick Swisher. They first went after Tori Hunter and Aaron Rowand to fill in the holes in the outfield but did not get either. This forced them to trade prospects to acquire Swisher. Although it was terrible to trade the prospects*, when one looks @ the three players in a variety of contexts the Sox seem to have come out on top (simply comparing @ the players straight up, not the prospects given up).

Hunter has played in the AL Central his whole career, and he's a great player. He's a two time all star, seven time Gold Glover, and has been in the top 25 of MVP balloting four separate years. He would have been great in the Sox outfield, but no. His $90m/5y contract is so far above what the Sox would pay, he went to California. It's nice to see him out of the division so the Sox don't have to pay him 18 times a year.

Sox fans favourite, Aaron Rowand, would have also looked great back in the outfield. Last year was his best year- 22d in NL MVP voting, an all star appearance, and a gold Glove. He his still on the upside of his career, and I expect him to get 100 rbi's this year. And don't forget, of the three players, he's the only one with a championship.

And then there's Nick Swisher. No all stars, no gold gloves, no world series- but given his age, his salary, his disposition, and that he is a lefty- the Sox seemed to have picked up the player with the biggest upside- despite having to pay heavily in prospects.

With the Sox, it's always salary first. Swisher had just signed an extension that will pay him $26.75 over the next five years. Hunter will make $90, Rowand a bit less than $80. So, for less than 30% of Hunters salary, the Sox get someone who has nearly the same stats- but is just entering his best years. Hunter, 32, will be a productive player for the next few years- but expect swisher to really come into his own. The savings of $11m a year on just one position will allow the Sox to scrimp and save in other areas (shit, what is this- the '78 Sox??).

The same stats?? c'mon, we've heard so much about Hunter, and had the complete enjoymnt watching Rowand in the beginning of his career - and how much have we heard of Swisher? But crunching the batting numbers gives us interesting totals. Swisher comes out really bad in some categories- for example, (all numbers in these comparisons are from the last three years) , his is the lowest battering average of the three by far- .251(s), .279 (h), and .283 (r). He also has the highest strikeout totals of the three - 131(s), 91(h), and 103(r).

But in most other batting stats, he's got better numbers. He leads the three in homers, runs scored, doubles them in walks, and is only 5 rbi behind Hunter. Another clincher is his OBA. Although his batting average is the lowest of the three, his OBA is highest. I was too lazy to figure out what the OBA's for the last three years are, but check out this:

'05/'06/'07
Swisher .322/.372/.371
Hunter .337/.336 /.334
Rowand .329 /.321 /.374

And this hitting in the worst stadium for batting in the majors. To think what numbers he will put up in Comisky is exciting.

These are only batting numbers, and numbers only tell part of the story. Rowand and Hunter are better fielders, although Swisher has that 'run into the fence' quality Sox fans dug fromRowand. Rowand is a champ, and got some all start love this year when he was 29. Hunter has been a regular all star, first when he was 26. Both have recieved Gold Gloves and MVP votes. But given that they both cost about $10m/year more than Swisher, Swisher has generally better or the same stats, he is youngest of all three (having just turned 27 last month) and just entering his best years, is an extremely good teammate, and he's a lefty (to two righties).

It was hard to give up the prospects, but who knows who will make it. Swisher is a known quantity, and we'll be enjoying this player for years to come. There's no way the Sox ill ever pony up $341 million in an off season - just uses that extra $10 on relievers......oh, I guss that's why there are two new relieveres in the Sox pen.

I have to imagine that there will be more moves. There are two shortstops, although I can see Juan Uribe @ second. Then there is the case of third base. Knowing the Sox, it will be Crede and his salary to go. Although the Sox made some moves in the off seaaon, there was not the total redo many thought would happen. In all truth, I could see the Sox recome to-gether as they did after what many thought was a terrible off season after '04. Hopefully last year was just an abberation. We'll have to wait on developments.

Spring training very soon. Very exciting.
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*= on the other hand, I am still waiting for Lorenzo Barcelo's star turn.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

they should be called the slow sox.
konerko-slow, thome-slow, swisher-slow. this plan will be either mildly succesful or very disatarous. but their still our sox!